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Tuesday, 19 June 2012

Learn Forex Trading

The enormous scope of the trillion dollar, 24 hour, globe spanning fx market presents a miriad of opportunities for the short term trader – however a day trader in this market must be aware of certain inherent factors to overcome.

Firstly, the bid ask spread in the fx market, normally at least 3 pips, makes trading on the shortest timeframe – in and out within seconds – very difficult.

The daily ranges can be very wide among certain currency pairs, presenting many opportunities for the day trader – however I feel that the intraday forex trader should look for specific technical and fundamental conditions before entering trades.

Secondly, due to the fact that there is currently no centralized exchange in the forex market, traders lack data on volume and open interest (the number of active contracts for a given security over a given time period)- important sources for traders in other markets – which causes a necessary shift in focus to other technical and fundamental factors.

While interbank dealers are able to see the order book and use this to their advantage, the retail fx trader can exploit their ability to react faster, and also with the knowledge that their trades will not move the market, as the trades of the larger institutions will.

The CME and Reuters are planning to launch a trading platform for fx in Q1 2007 – using CME trade matching and clearing technology – this will address the issues mentioned above (ie the spread will be tighter, you will be able to see volume etc.) and it will be interesting to see whether they can attract the liquidity and create a successful marketplace.

While both technical and fundamental analysis are important to the forex trader, we will begin with a focus on technicals.

The Big Picture

A very important factor in having an edge in the market is to be aware of the big picture – identifying the type of market that exists, whether it is trending or range bound.

To grasp this it is essential to use multiple time frame analysis – even if you are a day trader, you should be looking at daily, hourly and 10 or 15 minute charts. The longer term charts will give you an idea of the overall temperament of the market.

One of the foremost strategies used by banks and hedge funds is to determine the overall trend of the market and enter trades at key retracement levels of that trend.

One of the advantages of trading the forex market is that it normally trends more than the equities market, due to the fact that macroeconomic events can continue to influence the market over a timeframe of months and years.

The fx trader should expoit this understanding of the overall trend of the market by positioning themselves in the direction of the trend.

In an uptrending market, look to buy pullbacks at key levels and the inverse for a downtrending market. One of the strengths of the fx market is that you can expoit market moves whether they are to the upside or downside.

Identifying good entry points to join the trend

A variety of technical tools are used to help gauge good entry points. Basic support and resistance levels (characterised on a bar chart by a sequence of lows or highs that fluctuate only slightly along a horizontal line and represent a level where buy orders outnumber sell orders or the inverse) on a daily chart and fibonacci levels are two examples. I recommend taking a look at Martin Prings article on how to identify support and resistance levels.

Lets take a quick look at Fibonaccci Levels:



Chart courtesy of Prophet Financial Systems (www.prophet.net)

Above is an example of fibonacci retracements in use. Fibonacci levels are created by drawing a trendline between two extreme points and then dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%.

I have found the 38 and 50% levels to be the most significant. The fib levels were a popular form of analysis among the interbank traders I worked with, and I found the 38% level to work with an eerie accuracy on the 30 minute chart while trading bund futures. Again the longer the timeframe used, the more significant the level.

Measuring the strength of the trend

Attempting to buy the low and sell the high is very often the undoing of the inexperienced trader – and while this strategy works in a range bound market, it is best avoided unless you have identified a market as such.

An important tool for determining the strength of a trend and whether a market is range bound is the Average Directional Index or ADX.



Chart courtesy of Prophet Financial Systems (www.prophet.net)

Measured on a scale between 0 and 100, readings below 20 are used to indicate a weak trend, while readings over 40 indicate a strong trend. ADX is not used to show the direction of a particular trend, rather to measure its strength.

Stay away from trend following trades if the ADX is below 20 and trending downward.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index (USDX) is a futures contract offered by the New York Board of Trade. It is a trade-weighted average of six foreign currencies against the dollar. Currently, the index includes euros (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), British pounds (GBP), Canadian dollars (CAD), Swedish kronas (SEK) and Swiss francs (CHF).

USDX broadly reflects the dollar’s standing compared to the other major currencies of the world. It is widely used to hedge risk in the currency markets or to take a position in the US Dollar without having the risk exposure of a single currency pair.

The US Dollar Index allows the fx trader a feel for what is going on in the FX market globally at a glance. If the Dollar Index is trending lower, then it is likely that a major currency that is a component of it is trading higher.

Important Psychological Levels

FX day traders should be able to identify price areas where large order flows will be triggered through the interbank market, and take advantage of the moves that are created by them.

Such levels include major areas of support and resistance on the daily chart and also round numbers such as double zeros – for example EUR/USD 1.2700.

Careful placement of stop loss and profit target orders enables the trader to execute trades with a strongly positive risk/reward factor.

For example, one might place a stop loss of 15 pips from the level and a profit target of 50 pips on the other side if you are attempting to profit from a bounce at such a level.

One should note that stop loss orders are normally placed somewhat beyond the key round figure numbers and profit taking orders are normally right at the key levels.

Attempting to catch a rebound off a major level is best executed when there are other technical factors supporting the rebound. For example if the market had been trading below its 20 period Simple Moving Average (SMA) prior to reaching the key level, this would support the decision to attempt to catch a rebound at that level.



Chart courtesy of Prophet Financial Systems (www.prophet.net)

Identifying these key levels can provide good entries to trades where you are joining the trend, as we discussed earlier, or if you are attempting to profit from a rebound off such a major level.

Bollinger Band Strategies

Bollinger Bands are a popular study used across all markets – including fx.



Chart courtesy of Prophet Financial Systems (www.prophet.net)

They can be useful in both generating entry and exit signals and gauging trends. The basic interpretation of Bollinger Bands is that market prices will tend to stay within the upper and lower bands.

Bollinger observed the following characteristics of his indicator:

- Sharper price movements tend to occur when the bands tighten and volatility decreases.

- When prices move outside the bands suggests a continuation in the direction of the overall trend.

- Bottoms and tops made outside the bands followed by bottoms and tops made inside the bands indicates a trend reversal.

Bollinger Bands are best used along with other indicators, such as an oscillator like the MACD.

Pivot Point Strategies

An old but reliable tool, originally used by floor traders are pivot points. They are another valuable tool for determining key support and resistance levels. Formula for Pivot Point Calculator


Pivot = (High + Low + Close) / 3

Resistance 1 = (2 x Pivot) – Low

Resistance 2 = Pivot + (High – Low)

Resistance 3 = High + 2 x (Pivot – Low)

Support 1 = (2 x Pivot) – High

Support 2 = Pivot – (High – Low)

Support 3 = Low – 2 x (High – Pivot)


The prices used to calculate the pivot point are the previous period’s high, low and closing prices. These prices are usually taken from the currency pair’s daily charts, but the pivot point can also be calculated using information from hourly charts. Normally the pivot points are taken from a daily chart and applied to intraday trading.

When the market opens above the pivot, the bias for the day is on the long side. An open below it suggests a bearish bias.

Typically the trading range is confined between the first support and resistance levels and these along with the pivot itself are the most important areas for you to consider.

While looking at pivot points you should be looking for a reversal or break through of the support and resitance levels. If the level fails to hold, this suggests follow through, and the second level of support and resistance can be used as a target.

Interestingly, an area that was a strong support level can often become a resistance level once it has been violated and retraces back to that same level (and the inverse for a previously strong resistance level).

Again, these levels are best used when confirmed with other technical indicators.

Inside Day Breakouts

An inside day is one where trading is contained within the trading range of the previous day.

The volatility breakout strategy entails entering a trade on a stop order above or below the range that has been previously trading – with the expectation that since a breakout has occured price will continue to move in that direction.

Volatility breakout systems are based on idea that if the market moves a certain percentage from a previous price level, the market is likely to see follow through in that direction. In this scenario you are looking for a continuation of the move based on momentum.

One should look for a series of inside days to implement this strategy, and the greater the number of inside days that transpire, the higher the probability of a breakout.

Also, the longer the timeframe used, the stronger the breakout opportunity – hourly and daily timeframes are the best to use.

This strategy is also best used with pairs that see tighter ranges – these are typically the crosses – currency pairs that do not have the USD as part of the pairing such as the EUR/GBP and the EUR/CHF.

Inevitably there will be false breakouts, as the interbank dealers try to trigger the stop orders just outside the breakout levels.

In order to avoid being caught in a false breakout situation, enter your trade with a stop order at least 10-15 pips above the breakout level – meaning the levels above or below the trading range depending on whether the market is breaking out to the upside or downside.

(In case you are not clear on this – a stop order is one that is placed above or below where the market is currently trading and becomes a market order when the market touches the price where the stop was entered. A buy stop is placed above the market and a sell stop is placed below.)

Again one can look to the ADX as an indicator to whether the market is still range bound or beginning to trend one way or another.

Stay away from inside day breakout trade if the ADX is below 20 and trending downward.

The breakout strategy is valuable in that it teaches the trader to do something that is normally counter intuitive – that is to buy the high or sell the low. Novice traders are more likely to try to pick tops and bottoms.

Often the breakout will occur in a fast moving market, making decisiveness even harder. However, if your strategy is in place and you have identified the opportunity, you will be ahead of the game.

Economic Releases

One should probably not use technical strategies to enter trades right around important economic releases such as the employment report.

Key levels of support and resistance will still come into play, after the fundamental data has played itself out in the market – but the short term technicals will hold little relevance.

Among the advantages to the retail fx trader in trading off fundamental data is that the information is readily accessible through sources such as Bloomberg and Reuters, and that the retail trader can actually act faster than the banks and hedge funds.

The impact of major economic news can take some time before it has finished impacting the market, and the day trader can use this to their advantage – benefiting from the momentum generated by the order flow of the bigger players.

The best opportunities are created when the news comes out way off expectation and the market scrambles to correct itself. This can happen quite frequently with releases such as the nonfarm payrolls part of the employment report.

For a good exit to a trade entered based on fundamentals, the trader should look to a significant technical level.

Lets look at the market reaction to some of the major economic releases:

The most timely and broad indicator of economic activity and overall economic health is the Employment Report.

Market Reaction:Event Fixed Income Equities Dollar
Payroll Employment Up Bond Market Down Stock Market Up Dollar Up
Unemployment Rate Up Bond Market Up Stock Market Down Dollar Down
Payroll Employment Down Bond Market Up Stock Market Down Dollar Down
Unemployment Rate Down Bond Market Down Stock Market Up Dollar Up


The most important quarterly release is Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – the best overall barometer of economic activity.

Market Reaction:Event Fixed Income Equities Dollar
GDP Up Bond Market Down Stock Market Up Dollar Up
GDP Down Bond Market Up Stock Market Down Dollar Down


Best times to be trading the FX market and the most volatile pairs to watch

The global forex markets trade from 5:00 PM EST Sunday through 4:00 PM EST Friday. Short term trading is usually best when there is good volatility.

Having said that lets take a look at the different global sessions and their characteristics:

European Trading Session (London)

The most important fx dealing center in the world.

London opens at 8.00 GMT and closes at 17.00 GMT. You can expect to see the highest volatility during the European session. GBP/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF see the most volatility with average daily ranges of up to 140 pips.

U.S. Session (New York)

Opens at 8.00 A.M EST and closes at 5PM EST.

The second largest forex market place.The busiest time is 8am to noon EST.

Trading activity normally slows down after the U.S. afternoon trading period. GBP/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF see average daily ranges of 120 pips during the US trading session – presenting many opportunities for the day trader.

European/U.S. Overlap

8am – noon EST. The market is very active during this period, making it an especially good environment for intraday trades.

Asian/European Overlap

2 a.m to 4a.m. EST. Trading is less active during this period.

Asian Session (Tokyo)

The Asian session opens at 7.00 p.m. EST and closes at 4:00 a.m. EST.

Volatility can be mixed during this period. USD/JPY, GBP/CHF and GBP/JPY have the widest ranges and present the short term trader with the greatest opportunity in terms of volatility.

Tuesday, 5 June 2012

How Can You Maximise Profit

Five important tips which you have to keep in your mind before doing the trading.


1) Do your homework:
Before opening a trade, you need a reason for believing that the asset value will go up or down. It’s easy to stay informed but not all traders realize how crucial this is. Are you following expert advice? Have you seen a news feature? Do you know the expected chart patterns of an asset? Sign up for Banc De Binary’s Daily Market Review and ask your personal broker for live trading signals.

2) Know your assets:
Understand the assets you trade. Does the price of a stock affect the price of the index in which it is traded or a related commodity? Top investors appreciate the connections between assets and anticipate knock-on movements. With over 90 assets on bbinary.com, it is better to specialize than try to understand them all. If you have existing knowledge of an asset, play to your strengths.

3) Manage your money:
Decide in advance how much money you are willing to place on each trade and how much in a whole trading session. Whether you trade cautiously or aggressively should depend on your experience, the strength of the market movement at the time, and the range of different assets you are trading.

4) Adapt your strategy:
A key advantage of binary options is that you can profit even in bearish and volatile markets. Be flexible and pick the best technique for the current conditions. For example, the ‘Straddle’ technique of buying and selling at low and high points in a volatile market can double your profit if both trades end in-the-money, but is no use when the market moves strongly in one direction.

5) Practice makes perfect:
$50,000 demo accounts exist for your benefit, so take advantage! A demo is the best way to become familiar with the platform and build confidence. Take heed from many professional traders who use a demo account alongside their real accounts for trying out new techniques.


Regards,

Puneet Bohra.

Tuesday, 3 April 2012

Bullish and Bearish Engulfing Bars


This article is all about one of the most powerful and reliable Forex price action set ups available. It is the bearish and bullish engulfing bar. Some traders call it the bearish or bullish outside bar. When played from the right areas and with the knowledge of how to be used correctly the engulfing bar is extremely useful price action tool to have in the trader’s armoury.
The acronyms for bearish and bullish engulfing bar are BEEB and BUEB.

Engulfing Bar structure:
The engulfing bar as it states in its title is formed when it fully consumes the previous candle. The engulfing bar can engulf more than 1 previous candle but to be considered an engulfing bar at least 1 candle must be fully consumed.

An example of a valid Bearish Engulfing Bar

An example of an Bullish Engulfing Bar
When looking for Engulfing bars we are looking for the large and very obvious bars that stick out. The bigger the Engulfing bar the better to trade as Engulfing bars are momentum bars, and we want to trade with momentum on our side! The bigger the bar, the bigger the momentum!
Not all Engulfing bars are tradeable signals and this is where the knowledge of where to look for them to form is absolutely key! The 2 basic criteria that need to be followed for an Engulfing bar to be a tradeable Engulfing bar are:

1: Must be large and obvious,
2: Must form at a swing point.

Those are just the 2 very basic things you need to look for when assessing an engulfing bar. When I say the Engulfing bar must form at a swing point, I mean if in an uptrend it must form at a swing low or if in a down trend it must form at a swing high.

Example of large and obvious Engulfing Bars


When combined on high time frames such as weekly and daily charts, and used with correct money management the Engulfing bar is a very reliable and profitable Forex tool that every trader should have in their arsenal.
Further information on how to correctly trade Engulfing bars, including where to enter, and stop placement as well as where the correct place to trade these signals from.

I hope this artical will help you or take the first step to become a full time professional trader.

Thanks,

pls feel free to leave your comments 


Tuesday, 13 March 2012

Candlestick Reversal Patterns

Major Candlestick Reversal Patterns

Learn and master these powerful reversal patterns with “Candlestick Trading for Maximum Profits”. You’ll also learn to find these patterns when they are the most profitable, filtering out invalid signals to give you the most profit for your trade. To find out more about “Candlestick Trading for Maximum Profits” just visit our home page.

Bearish Candlestick Reversal Patterns.

Bearish Dark Cloud

Bearish Dark Cloud
Psychology
A long white candlestick is formed on the 1st day and a gap up is created on the 2nd day. This is encouraging to the bulls. However, the 2nd day closes below the midpoint of the 1st day. Longs quickly question their strategy.
Bearish Doji Star
Bearish Doji Star
Psychology
The uptrend is in full force with a strong 1st day. All confidence built up by the bulls from the 1st day is destroyed when the 2nd day’s gap up closes near its open. Profit takers will quickly appear if the next day opens lower.
Bearish Engulfing Pattern
Bearish Engulfing
Psychology
If not much volume occurs on the 1st day of the Bearish Engulfing formation compared to the 2nd day, then this increases the strength of the pattern. The 2nd day opens above the close of the 1st day, however quickly sells off to finally close below the open of the 1st day. This scares the longs and brings into question the bull trend which prompts additional selling in the coming days.
Bearish Evening Star
Evening Star
Psychology
The 2nd day gaps higher, but trades in a small range. The bearishness of this indecision is confirmed by the lower close of the 3rd day. Look for lower prices.
Bearish Evening Doji Star
Evening Doji Star
Psychology
The bearishness of the doji star created on the 1st two days is confirmed with the 3rd day. If the penetration of the 3rd day is more than 50 percent, then this formation has a much better chance to succeed for the trader.
Bearish Hanging Man
Hanging Man
Psychology
As with any single candlestick, confirmation is required. The Hanging Man formation shows the price goes much lower than the open then closes near the opening price. This could mean that many longs have positions that they are attempting to sell. Ideally, a black real body Hanging Man with a lower open the following day could be a bearish signal for the days ahead.
Bearish Harami
Bearish Harami
Psychology
A long 1st day with high volume in the existing uptrend brings complacency to the bulls. The next day trades in a small range within the previous day’s real body. Light volume on the 2nd day should give rise to concern by the bulls of an impending change of trend. Look for lower prices over the coming days, especially if the next day provides confirmation of a trend change by closing lower.
Bearish Harami Cross
Bearish Harami Cross
Psychology
The 2nd day’s price range does not pierce the previous day’s range and closes about where it opened. Volume on the 2nd day is low which indicates that traders are lacking enough information to decide whether to go long or short.
Bearish Shooting Star
Shooting Star
Psychology
The long upper shadow and small real body at the bottom of the trading range are cause for concern by the bulls. They wonder if this is the end of the uptrend and take measures to protect their gains.

Bullish Candlestick Reversal Patterns.

Learn and master these powerful reversal patterns with “Candlestick Trading for Maximum Profits”. You’ll also learn to find these patterns when they are the most profitable, filtering out invalid signals to give you the most profit for your trade. To find out more about “Candlestick Trading for Maximum Profits” just visit our home page.
Bullish Doji Star
Bullish Doji Star
Psychology
The downtrend is in full force with a strong 1st day. All confidence built up by the bears from the 1st day is destroyed when the 2nd day’s gap down closes near it’s open. Short covering will quickly appear if the next day opens higher.
Bullish Engulfing Pattern
Bullish Engulfing
Psychology
If not much volume occurs on the 1st day of the Bullish Engulfing formation compared to the 2nd day, then this increases the strength of the pattern. The 2nd day opens below the close of the 1st day, however quickly rallies to close above the open of the 1st day. This damages the spirits of the shorts and brings into question the bear trend which prompts additional buying in the coming days.
Bullish Hammer
Bullish Hammer
Psychology
As with any single candlestick, confirmation is required. The Bullish Hammer formation shows the price goes much lower than the open then closes near the opening price. This fact reduces the confidence of the bears. Ideally, a white real body Hammer with a higher open the following day could be a bullish signal for the days ahead.
Bullish Harami
Bullish Harami
Psychology
A long 1st day with high volume in the existing downtrend brings complacency to the bears. The next day trades in a small range within the previous day’s real body. Light volume on the 2nd day should give rise to concern by the bears of an impending change of trend. Look for higher prices over the coming days, especially if the next day provides confirmation of a trend change by closing higher.
Bullish Harami Cross
Bullish Harami Cross
Psychology
The 2nd day’s price range does not pierce the previous day’s range and closes about where it opened. Volume on the 2nd day is low which indicates that traders are lacking enough information to decide whether to go long or short.
Bullish Inverted Hammer
Inverted Hammer
Psychology
The long upper shadow and small real body at the bottom of the trading range are cause for concern by the bears. They wonder if this is the end of the downtrend and take measures to protect their gains. If the next day opens above the body of the Inverted Hammer, then expectations could be for shorts to cover and propel a reversal rally.
Bullish Morning Star
Morning Star
Psychology
The 2nd day gaps lower, but trades in a small range. The bullishness of this indecision is confirmed by the higher close of the 3rd day. Look for higher prices.
Morning Doji Star
Morning Star
Psychology
The bullishness of the doji star created on the 1st two days is confirmed with the 3rd day. If the penetration of the 3rd day is more than 50 percent, then this formation has a much better chance to succeed for the trader.
Bullish Piercing Pattern
Bullish Piercing
Psychology
The gap down on the 2nd day perpetuates the downtrend. However, the 2nd day’s close is above the midpoint of the 1st day’s body. This suggests to the bears that a bottom could be forming. This price action is not nearly as discernable using bar charts as it is with candlestick charts. The more penetration of the close on the 2nd day to the 1st day’s body, the more probable the reversal signal will succeed.

Friday, 9 March 2012

Forex Relative Strength Index Indicator Explained

The relative strength index (RSI) is in fact a momentum indicator that can be used to measure whether the market is currently overbought or oversold. Being able to identify the duration where the market is overbought or oversold can prevents you from entering a losing trade.
Here is how to read the Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Overall the RSI has a magnitude of 0 to 100. When it falls below the magnitude of 30, it usually indicates a situation of oversold and when it went above the magnitude of 70, it is usually indicating that the market is overbought.
Overbought & Oversold
However being overbought or oversold does not mean that the price will not move further up or down the market needs some time to correct itself. Similarly it also does not mean that you must enter a trade when the market is in either one of the extreme levels.
How to Use the Relative Strength Index (RSI):
1) As an Entry Indicator:
Depending on the types of market you are trading, there is a slight difference in the way you can use the RSI.
a) Range Trading
In a ranging market which means that the price is moving up and down within a range. You can use the oversold and overbought feature of this indicator to help you enter your trade.
When you see the price approaching a resistance level and the RSI rising above the magnitude of 70 which means that the market is currently overbought, you can enter a SHORT trade to profit from the range.
When the price is approaching a support level and the RSI falls below the magnitude of 30, you should then enter a LONG trade to profit from the range.
Range Trading With RSI
b) Trend Trading
In a trending market, the way you use this indicator to help you in entering a trade will be a bit different from the above. When you are in a trending market, you should be looking to BUY a Dip and SELL a Rally and this is where the RSI can be of use to you.
If the market is in an uptrend, you should wait for the price to retrace before you enter a trade. You can enter a LONG trade when you see the RSI dropping below the 50 marks and then curve up above it.
If the market is in a downtrend, you can enter a SHORT trade if you see the RSI rising above the 50 mark and then curve down moving below it.
Trend Trading With RSI
2) As a Trend Indicator:
Besides using RSI as an entry indicator, it can also be used as a tool for confirming a trend. If you are in an uptrend, you can confirm it by making sure that the RSI is above the 50 mark. If you are in a downtrend, you can confirm it by checking if the RSI is below the 50 mark.
The RSI is a good tool to avoid fake outs in trend and you should always make use of this ability to confirm the trend before you enter a trade.
3) As a Divergence Indicator:
You must have heard of MACD divergence but you may not have heard of RSI divergence. But for those new traders who are reading my blog post, I will go through what divergence is all about.
A divergence occurs when the market is moving in the opposite direction as the indicators.
You will get a positive divergence which is usually formed when the market makes lower low while the indicator makes higher low. The divergence is in fact a leading indicator as it gives you a pre-warning that the market is going to reverse.
You will see a negative divergence when you see the market making higher high while the indicator makes lower high and this is usually an indicator that the market is going to move from up to down.
RSI Divergence
The above are 3 ways you can make use of the Relative Strength Index in your trading. Make sure you include this indicator into your trading toolkit as it is something that can give you an edge if you do it right.

Forex Stochastic Indicator Explained

The stochastic indicator is a tool that is developed by George C.Lane. It is in fact a momentum indicator or oscillator that is used to compare the current market price to the high and low of a specific period of time.
The stochastic is made up of 2 lines, %K and %D. Depending on your setting, you can adjust the sensitivity of these 2 lines to suit your plan.
Although there are 3 types of stochastic namely full, fast and slow, the fast and slow ones are more commonly used. So let us take a look at both of them.
Fast Vs Slow
From the picture above, you can see that there are more crossovers for the fast stochastic which means that it is actually more sensitive than the slower one. However this gives rise to more false signal which is undesirable in trading.
As for the slow stochastic, it is less sensitive and produces lesser false signals as compared to the fast one. Due to its low sensitivity, it will usually signal you to enter a trade after the market has already moved by certain amount.
How to Read the Stochastic?
When the stochastic moves above the 80 level, the market is considered to be overbought and when it moves below the 20 level, the market is considered to be oversold.
However there is one thing you have to take note, when it moves above the 80 level, it does not always mean that the market will reverse. There are times where it will continue to stay above the 80 level and in this situation; it usually indicates that the market is in a strong uptrend.
overbought and oversold
The important thing to note when reading the stochastic is when the %K crosses above %D after it reaches the oversold level or when the %K crosses below %D after it reaches the overbought level.
How to Use the Stochastic?
There are several ways you can use the stochastic to help you in your trading and below are some of them
1) Entry Signal: It can be a great tool when it comes to giving entry signal. Personally I like to enter my position when the %K crosses the %D and move out of either the overbought or oversold level.
If I am looking to go LONG, I will wait for the stochastic %K to cross above the %D and move above the 20 mark. If I am looking for a SHORT trade, I will wait for the %K to cross below the %D and move below the 80 mark.
2) Exit Signal: The concept for using stochastic to exit my position is about the same as the entry. If I have taken a LONG trade, I will wait for it to move to the overbought zone and exit my position after %K crosses below %D and move below the 80 mark.
Exit Signal
3) Reversal Signal: Other than MACD divergence, you can also make use of stochastic divergence to enter a trade. The positive divergence occurs when the market makes lower low while the stochastic make higher low. This is usually an indication that the market is going to reverse up.
Positive Divergence
The negative divergence occurs when the market makes higher high and the stochastic make lower high. This usually signifies a downward reversal is going to occur.
Negative Divergence
The above are 3 ways I usually use the stochastic and I hope that you will be able to make full use of its ability to help you in your trading.

Sunday, 4 March 2012

Trade Selection


Your trading week can bear witness to the fulfillment of a lot of long range planning, and the big payoffs that such planning brings to those who are wise and patient-those who want the best of the best. Many times it really pays to be patiently waiting for a trade to burst forth and make some nice gains.
A number of the spreads we do are the result of patient waiting for the two sides to come into proper alignment. We plan these trades days or even weeks in advance. When a major entry signal such as the breakout of a Ross hook are being made, every effort within reason should be made to be aboard, even if only for a couple of days.

Regardless of what may be happening on the intraday charts, the order to buy or sell based on a Traders Trick Entry must be in place and waiting as resting orders. Therefore, even if the intraday charts do not yield an adequate entry signal, the order will be filled. The resting orders may be limit orders, so as to avoid being filled on gap breakouts.
To ensure that everything is in place at the right time, you have to have everything prepared beforehand.
Trade selection and adequate planning go hand in hand. This is where the vast majority of would-be professional traders miss the boat.
Much more money is made as a result of proper planning than from sitting and trading everything that comes along or "looks" good.
I'll never fully understand why people think they have to trade so much of the time. Nor will I ever fully grasp why people think that they have to take as many trades as they do.
I was taught just the opposite. I want to cover in greater detail just how I was taught to approach trade selection.
It all starts with proper management-planning, organizing, delegating, directing, and controlling.
I was taught to weave them all together in my trading-they do overlap.
Although planning is the major management function involved in trade selection, you can't possibly plan well unless you are organized to do so.
You must have your tools at hand. Your charts, your data, the proper equipment etc. All of the rudiments for planning must be in place-this is a part of organizing.
You must be physically fit when you plan: well nourished, properly exercised, well rested etc., all part of having your life organized.
I was taught that to be a winning trader, I had to be the best. There could be no middle ground. There were only winners and losers out there, and to be a winner I had to be a champion. And, just like any champion, I had to train, train, train.
I was taught that there were no runners up in trading. When others were busy going to parties, I was to study. When others were listening to the radio or watching TV, I was to practice trading.
I was to study my charts diligently. The charts, as inaccurate as they were, were all I had to hang my hat on. I was to picture and imagine in my mind what made them move and form the way they did. I was to ask myself, "How does what I see in front of me relate to supply and demand?" Supply and demand are what make prices move or not move during a trend.
But there was more to a chart than that. Reflected in the chart were the emotional reactions of human beings. Reactions to rumors and news; to national and world events; to government reports-these too were on the charts.
There was something else on the charts, something that few took into account. That something was the manipulations from and by the market movers, the trading floor and also from and by holders of large inventories of the underlying commodity. These were in the days before financial futures and before electronic trading. Today, the big players have an even greater effect on the markets.
I was taught to look for evidence of any and all of these things when I studied my charts. I was told that the cumulative action of these things caused patterns to form.
I was taught to look for the truths in the markets. There were only two things that were always true-A BREAKOUT, and a TREND. I was to master these phenomena. Over and over I had hammered into my head, the truth is always the truth. When a market breaks out, no one can change that. It is history and it is true. It may turn out to be a "false" breakout, but nevertheless it is a breakout. I had to learn to tell which ones were most likely true breakouts. How would I know that? By the patterns on the chart.
The trend is the trend while it lasts. While a market is trending it is telling the truth. The trend can change, but the truth is the truth. If the market is going up, prices are going up. If the market is going down, then the truth is that prices are going down. It is an immutable fact. I was to learn to make my money by trading with the trend. I was to learn what constitutes a trend. I had to learn to spot trends early so that I could make the most out of the market while it trended. I was to learn to recognize when a trend would most likely begin, and just as important, I had to learn to be even more adept at deciphering when a trend was ending. A trend represents momentum, and momentum is what makes money for you if you are going with it.
I was taught to learn to recognize "my" trade(s), and to take only "my" trades. "Trade the formations and patterns that you can easily recognize and identify,"
I was told.
I was taught to trade using the tricks I had been shown and to accumulate and keep a collection of high probability tricks in my bag of tools. One such tool is the Traders Trick Entry.
How was I to do all this? Practice, practice, PRACTICE. Practice recognition of congestion areas. Practice recognition of high probability breakouts. Practice and more practice. Just like anyone who wants to be a champion at anything, total dedication, study, practice and more practice. I was to become a virtuoso at trading. I was to practice it over and over, always realizing I would never be good enough. There would always be a way that I could do things better, more efficiently, and with greater speed and finesse.
I also had to become proficient in the other aspects of management. I was taught to write out a script of my orders and rehearse giving them. I was taught to tape my orders and write them down. I was taught to be extremely firm and insistent and to develop that tone of voice when I was calling them in by telephone. No nice guy stuff.
Polite, but firm and strong, urgent and insistent was the way the orders had to be called in. This was directing those to whom I had given the authority to get my orders to the trading floor. Then I was taught to be extremely intimidating in getting back the results. To be ruthless in demanding good fills.
 

To ask for time and sales on anything suspect. This was controlling, exacting back responsibility for the authority originally delegated.
I was taught that I owed my broker nothing. He was the servant and I was the master. I was paying him well for the service he rendered. I was to expect the best from a broker. I was to be quick to drop a broker from service. After all, I was the one picking up the tab, not the broker.
Over the years, although markets have changed, nothing has changed in the way of maintaining personal discipline.

You must watch the market, watch every tick if you are daytrading, learn to see what is going on. Pick your trades carefully. Pick only those formations that form well, ones that are clearly what you would like to see. As you gain experience, you will learn to recognize even more trading opportunities.